Delivering meaningful uncertainty estimates is essential for a successful deployment of machine learning models in the clinical practice. A central aspect of uncertainty quantification is the ability of a model to return predictions that are well-aligned with the actual probability of the model being correct, also known as model calibration. Although many methods have been proposed to improve calibration, no technique can match the simple, but expensive approach of training an ensemble of deep neural networks. In this paper we introduce a form of simplified ensembling that bypasses the costly training and inference of deep ensembles, yet it keeps its calibration capabilities. The idea is to replace the common linear classifier at the end of a network by a set of heads that are supervised with different loss functions to enforce diversity on their predictions. Specifically, each head is trained to minimize a weighted Cross-Entropy loss, but the weights are different among the different branches. We show that the resulting averaged predictions can achieve excellent calibration without sacrificing accuracy in two challenging datasets for histopathological and endoscopic image classification. Our experiments indicate that Multi-Head Multi-Loss classifiers are inherently well-calibrated, outperforming other recent calibration techniques and even challenging Deep Ensembles' performance. Code to reproduce our experiments can be found at \url{https://github.com/agaldran/mhml_calibration} .
翻译:提供有意义的不确定性估计是成功在临床实践中成功部署机器学习模型的关键。不确定性量化的一个核心方面是返回预测模型的能力,这种预测与模型正确性的实际概率完全吻合,也称为模型校准。虽然提出了许多改进校准的方法,但没有任何技术可以匹配简单但昂贵的训练深神经网络组合的方法。在本文中,我们引入了一种简化的组合形式,这种组合绕过昂贵的深层昆虫的培训和推断,但它保持了校准能力。我们的想法是用一组头目取代网络末端的普通线性分类器,这些头目受到不同损失功能的监督,以便在预测中执行多样性。具体地说,每个头都受过培训,以尽量减少加权的跨体损失,但不同分支的重量不同。我们表明,由此得出的平均预测可以实现极好的校准,而不会降低两个具有挑战性的数据集的精确度。我们的实验显示,甚至多位/低位/低位校正/高校正的校准技术也必然会超越了我们的深层校正/高校准。</s>