By modeling contests as all-pay auctions, we study two-stage sequential elimination contests (SEC) under incomplete information, where only the players with top efforts in the first stage can proceed to the second and final stage to compete for prizes. Players have privately held type/ability information that impacts their costs of exerting efforts. We characterize players' Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium strategies and discover a somewhat surprising result: all players exert weakly lower efforts in the final stage of the SEC compared to those under a one-round contest, regardless of the number of players admitted to the final stage. This result holds under any multi-prize reward structure, any type distribution and cost function. As a consequence, in terms of the expected highest effort or total efforts of the final stage, the optimal SEC is equivalent to a one-round contest by letting all players proceed to the final stage.
翻译:通过模拟全薪拍卖,我们根据不完整的信息研究两阶段连续消除竞争(SEC),其中只有第一阶段最努力的参与者才能进入第二阶段和最后阶段竞争奖金。玩家拥有影响其努力成本的私人持有的类型/可用性信息。我们把玩家的完美巴耶斯平衡战略定性为完美巴伊西亚平衡战略,并发现一个令人惊讶的结果:所有参与者在SEC的最后阶段所作的努力都比在一回合竞争中的努力要弱,而不管进入最后阶段的参与者人数多。这一结果是在任何多功能奖励结构、任何类型的分配和成本功能下进行。因此,从预期的最大努力或最后阶段的全部努力来看,最佳的SEC相当于一回合竞争,让所有参与者进入最后阶段。