Given the well-known and fundamental problems with hypothesis testing via classical (point-form) significance tests, there has been a general move to alternative approaches, often focused on the Bayesian t-test. We show that the Bayesian t-test approach does not address the observed problems with classical significance testing, that Bayesian and classical t-tests are mathematically equivalent and linearly related in order of magnitude (so that the Bayesian t-test providing no further information beyond that given by point-form significance tests), and that Bayesian t-tests are subject to serious risks of misinterpretation, in some cases more problematic than seen for classical tests (with, for example, a negative sample mean in an experiment giving strong Bayesian t-test evidence in favour of a positive population mean). We do not suggest a return to the classical, point-form significance approach to hypothesis testing. Instead we argue for an alternative distributional approach to significance testing, which addresses the observed problems with classical hypothesis testing and provides a natural link between the Bayesian and frequentist approaches.
翻译:鉴于通过古典(点形)意义测试进行假设测试的众所周知的根本问题,人们普遍倾向于采用其他方法,往往侧重于巴耶斯试验。我们表明,巴耶斯试验方法没有解决古典意义测试中观察到的问题,巴耶斯试验和古典试验在数学上是等效的,在数量上是线性相关的(因此,巴耶斯试验除了点形意义测试之外,没有提供进一步的信息),而且巴耶斯试验也存在严重的误解风险,在某些情况下,比古典试验更成问题(例如,在试验中,否定样本意味着提供强有力的巴耶斯试验证据,以有利于正人口。我们不建议恢复古典的、点形意义测试方法。相反,我们主张对重要测试采取其他分配方法,解决古典假设测试中观察到的问题,并在巴伊斯和常态方法之间建立自然联系。