Machine learning approaches commonly rely on the assumption of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) data. In reality, however, this assumption is almost always violated due to distribution shifts between environments. Although valuable learning signals can be provided by heterogeneous data from changing distributions, it is also known that learning under arbitrary (adversarial) changes is impossible. Causality provides a useful framework for modeling distribution shifts, since causal models encode both observational and interventional distributions. In this work, we explore the sparse mechanism shift hypothesis, which posits that distribution shifts occur due to a small number of changing causal conditionals. Motivated by this idea, we apply it to learning causal structure from heterogeneous environments, where i.i.d. data only allows for learning an equivalence class of graphs without restrictive assumptions. We propose the Mechanism Shift Score (MSS), a score-based approach amenable to various empirical estimators, which provably identifies the entire causal structure with high probability if the sparse mechanism shift hypothesis holds. Empirically, we verify behavior predicted by the theory and compare multiple estimators and score functions to identify the best approaches in practice. Compared to other methods, we show how MSS bridges a gap by both being nonparametric as well as explicitly leveraging sparse changes.
翻译:机床学习方法通常依赖于独立和完全分布的数据(i.d.)的假设。但在现实中,这种假设几乎总是由于环境之间的分布变化而几乎总是被违反。虽然来自变化分布的不同数据可以提供宝贵的学习信号,但人们也知道,在任意(对抗性)变化下学习是不可能的。由于因果模型对观察和干预分布进行编码,因此为分配变化建模提供了有用的框架。在这项工作中,我们探索了稀疏的机制转变假设,这种假设假设假设假设假设假设由于少数因因果条件的变化而发生分配变化。受这一想法的驱动,我们将其用于从不同环境中学习因果结构,因为i.d.数据只能用于学习等同的图表类别,而无需限制性的假设。我们提议采用机制转移计分法,即对各种经验估计者来说都适用分数法,这种分法可以准确地确定整个因果结构,如果机制变化微弱的假设存在的话,则具有很高的概率。我们用这个假设来核查理论所预测的行为,并比较多重估计和得分函数,以便明确确定最佳的做法。我们通过不甚深的杠杆地利用其他方法来显示最佳办法。