川滇地区地震动估计及烈度速判新方法研究

项目名称： 川滇地区地震动估计及烈度速判新方法研究

项目编号： No.51278469

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 建筑科学

项目作者： 陆鸣

作者单位： 中国地震局地壳应力研究所

项目金额： 86万元

中文摘要： 以川滇地区丰富的强震动数据和强震动台站场地钻孔数据为基础，建立川滇地区强震动数据库。应用五种NGA(Next generation attenuation) 模型，开展包涵有震源机制、场地效应的新一代地震动衰减关系研究，以提高目前我国对于川滇地区地震动估计的可靠性。为了弥补衰减关系对于大震以及近场地震动估计的不足，本项目基于川滇历史小震数据，反演点源随机模型的震源参数、地区地震波几何衰减函数、品质因子以及场地放大系数。利用大震的震源机制，构建合理的有限断层震源模型，应用随机模型重现历史大震的地震动场，以探索大震震源谱特性以及近场地震动特征，例如近场地震动震级饱和、上下盘效应、方向性效应等。研究成果对我国其他地区基于随机模型的地震动场模拟具有很大的借鉴意义。最后，基于地震烈度和地震动参数的关系，实现川滇地区地震烈度速判,为政府应对未来破坏性地震提供决策依据。

中文关键词： 地震动；地震烈度速报；随机模型；强震动数据库；反演

英文摘要： Based on the abundant seismic records and drilling data of Sichuan-Yunnan areas, this project is supposed to build a strong motion database and develop a new ground motion attenuation model by fitting the five NGA models with seismic records. As the new model consider the source and site effect, it can improve the estimate of ground motion. However, the attenuation model cannot give a desirable estimate of large earthquake and near-fault ground motion. In order to make up this deficiency, this project will derive the source parameter, geometrical attenuation function of path effect, quality factor and site amplification factors from the seismic records of small earthquakes by using inversion theory. Then construct effective finite fault source model and use stochastic model to simulate the large earthquake ground motion and near-fault characteristics, such as magnitude saturation, Hanging wall effect and directivity effect. The research has much significance for the stochastic model application to the other regions in China. Finally, using the relationship between seismic intensity with ground motion parameters, project will develop a new method to predict quickly the intensity distribution when large earthquake attack the Sichuan-Yunnan areas in the future, which will help the government to make decisions for e

英文关键词： Ground motion；rapid prediction of seismic intensity；stochastic model；strong ground motion record database；inversion