Policy Evaluation for Temporal and/or Spatial Dependent Experiments in Ride-sourcing Platforms

Policy evaluation based on A/B testing has attracted considerable interest in digital marketing, but such evaluation in ride-sourcing platforms (e.g., Uber and Didi) is not well studied primarily due to the complex structure of their temporal and/or spatial dependent experiments. Motivated by policy evaluation in ride-sourcing platforms, the aim of this paper is to establish causal relationship between platform's policies and outcomes of interest under a switchback design. We propose a novel potential outcome framework based on a temporal varying coefficient decision process (VCDP) model to capture the dynamic treatment effects in temporal dependent experiments. We further characterize the average treatment effect by decomposing it as the sum of direct effect (DE) and indirect effect (IE). We develop estimation and inference procedures for both DE and IE. Furthermore, we propose a spatio-temporal VCDP to deal with spatiotemporal dependent experiments. For both VCDP models, we establish the statistical properties (e.g., weak convergence and asymptotic power) of our estimation and inference procedures. We conduct extensive simulations to investigate the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimation and inference procedures. We examine how our VCDP models can help improve policy evaluation for various dispatching and dispositioning policies in Didi.