Factor-augmented tree ensembles

This manuscript proposes to extend the information set of time-series regression trees with latent stationary factors extracted via state-space methods. In doing so, this approach generalises time-series regression trees on two dimensions. First, it allows to handle predictors that exhibit measurement error, non-stationary trends, seasonality and/or irregularities such as missing observations. Second, it gives a transparent way for using domain-specific theory to inform time-series regression trees. As a byproduct, this technique sets the foundations for structuring powerful ensembles. Their real-world applicability is studied under the lenses of empirical macro-finance.