Causal Graph Discovery with Retrieval-Augmented Generation based Large Language Models

Causal graph recovery is essential in the field of causal inference. Traditional methods are typically knowledge-based or statistical estimation-based, which are limited by data collection biases and individuals' knowledge about factors affecting the relations between variables of interests. The advance of large language models (LLMs) provides opportunities to address these problems. We propose a novel method that utilizes the extensive knowledge contained within a large corpus of scientific literature to deduce causal relationships in general causal graph recovery tasks. This method leverages Retrieval Augmented-Generation (RAG) based LLMs to systematically analyze and extract pertinent information from a comprehensive collection of research papers. Our method first retrieves relevant text chunks from the aggregated literature. Then, the LLM is tasked with identifying and labelling potential associations between factors. Finally, we give a method to aggregate the associational relationships to build a causal graph. We demonstrate our method is able to construct high quality causal graphs on the well-known SACHS dataset solely from literature.