Semiparametric discrete data regression with Monte Carlo inference and prediction

Discrete data are abundant and often arise as counts or rounded data. These data commonly exhibit complex distributional features such as zero-inflation, over- or under-dispersion, boundedness, and heaping, which render many parametric models inadequate. Yet even for parametric regression models, approximations such as MCMC typically are needed for posterior inference. This paper introduces a Bayesian modeling and algorithmic framework that enables semiparametric regression analysis for discrete data with Monte Carlo (not MCMC) sampling. The proposed approach pairs a nonparametric marginal model with a latent linear regression model to encourage both flexibility and interpretability, and delivers posterior consistency even under model misspecification. For a parametric or large-sample approximation of this model, we identify a class of conjugate priors with (pseudo) closed-form posteriors. All posterior and predictive distributions are available analytically or via Monte Carlo sampling. These tools are broadly useful for linear regression, nonlinear models via basis expansions, and variable selection with discrete data. Simulation studies demonstrate significant advantages in computing, prediction, estimation, and selection relative to existing alternatives. This novel approach is applied to self-reported mental health data that exhibit zero-inflation, overdispersion, boundedness, and heaping.