基于GIS “胡焕庸线”以西人口增量空间分布与环境承载力研究

项目名称： 基于GIS “胡焕庸线”以西人口增量空间分布与环境承载力研究

项目编号： No.41501475

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 肖函

作者单位： 中国科学院遥感与数字地球研究所

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 为缓解中国东西部发展日趋失衡问题，国家“引导约1亿人在中西部地区就近城镇化”思路将会加速推进从东到西的人口重新分布。西部地区生态环境脆弱，以可持续发展为大前提的人口增量空间分布与环境承载力研究极为重要。本项目将基于GIS空间分析技术，以土地可利用类型为基础、可再生能源为参考、水资源分布为限定、生态环境可持续发展为优化条件，对“胡焕庸线”以西地区进行人口承载空间可视化评估与分析；对地表时空多变要素进行定量遥感分析与反演，发现大规模人类活动对地表覆盖变化、地表辐射热收支平衡、水循环平衡等人与自然的可持续增长规律的相关性；在自然、环境可持续发展约束因素下，倒逼分析未来西部人口增量的可行性科学布局。通过本项目的研究，最终成果可以为我国西部地区新型城镇化人口空间分布布局提供理论依据和参考。

中文关键词： 地理信息系统；胡焕庸线；空间分布；承载力；人口增量

英文摘要： In order to balance the development of the eastern and western regions, the government encourages a kind of urbanization in China’s central and western regions, in which all the surrounding rural residents will be involved. This will surely change the current population distribution from the east to west. Although vast in area, the west regions are relatively more vulnerable ecologically, therefore, it is important to conduct an in-depth study on population increment spatial distribution and environmental carrying capacity so as to promote the sustainability of the development. .With a powerful capability of processing and analyzing regional economic geography data, GIS can help to identify the potential risks in regional development from a spatial perspective and in a more scientific and effective manner. Using GIS spatial analysis, this project aims to provide a visualized assessment and analysis of population carrying capacity on the west of the “Hu Line” (or the “Heihe-Tengchong Line”) based on the research on water resources distribution and land use, and in preferable condition regarding renewable energy & ecological environment. Find a correlation of large-scale human immigration, on the surface radiation heat balance and water cycle balance et al and the natural law of sustainable growth..An analysis will be made on the feasible and scientific distribution of future population increment in the western region which will not affect the sustainable development. It also seeks to find a more scientific solution for the sustainable development on the west of the “Hu Line”, and provide a theoretical support for China’s urbanization.

英文关键词： GIS;Hu Line;Spatial Distribution ;Carrying Capacity ;Population Increment