变化环境下水资源时空格局演变图化方法研究

项目名称： 变化环境下水资源时空格局演变图化方法研究

项目编号： No.51309248

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 水利工程

项目作者： 严子奇

作者单位： 中国水利水电科学研究院

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 由于气候变化和高强度人类活动的影响导致流域下垫面变化的复杂性，跨时空尺度水文图化（Mapping）的研究已成为当前国际水文科学研究的热点前沿问题，其关键科学问题是构建基于水平衡理论的空间插值方法。本项目将流域水循环及水量平衡物理制约关系与水文要素的空间插值方法相结合，提出流域尺度下径流空间插值算法，建立径流空间插值不确定性评价体系；通过将垂向水量平衡约束条件加入到空间插值方法中，建立降雨、蒸发、径流深三者之间的相关关系，提出一种基于水循环多要素联合空间插值的水文图化方法，并将其应用于我国典型流域，分析变化环境下水文要素的时空分异特征，为揭示变化环境下流域水资源时空格局演变提供新方法。该项研究对推动水文学的发展和流域水资源管理有重要的意义。

中文关键词： 水量平衡；不确定性；空间插值；图化方法；径流

英文摘要： Mapping large scale regional variations in hydrological behavior has a long tradition in hydrology as well as in other geosciences like meteorology, climatology and geography. The main hydrometerological processes(rainfall, evapotranspiration, temperature etc.) when observed at the land surface develop in a three-dimensional space - the two geographical coordinates (x, y) and time t. The variation of these variables across space is described as contour map sin classical works, i.e. they are space-filling phenomena and allow straight forward interpolation. River discharge (surface runoff), on the other hand, is formed in a two- dimensional space - the distance along a river (related to the point with area A in a basin) and time t . This relationship to the area (and not the (x, y)coordinates) explains why the variation of runoff characteristics across space,determined from discharge measurements, cannot be plotted as simply ashydrometerological variables. Neither is it a space-filling phenomenon. This proposal aims at combining the water balance constraint and stochastic approach for producing choropleth maps of water resourses under changing enviorment. To avoid the uncertainty in hydrological model, this study is just based on data. From singal component (runoff) to multiple components (precipitation, evaporat

英文关键词： Water Balance；Uncertainty；Spatial Interpolation；Mapping Approach；Runoff