基于交通行为的道路网络脆弱性识别及改善策略研究

项目名称： 基于交通行为的道路网络脆弱性识别及改善策略研究

项目编号： No.71473060

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 谢秉磊

作者单位： 哈尔滨工业大学

项目金额： 62万元

中文摘要： 道路网络承担的风险不断加大，一些薄弱环节会因中断和拥堵对整个网络产生极大的影响，道路网络脆弱性的研究逐渐引起重视，但是大多数研究没有考虑可能发生的拥挤以及用户交通行为的变化，不能刻画交通流的动态、随机特性，造成道路网络脆弱性识别结果与真实情况存在偏差。课题通过陈述性调查分析路网单元失效后的用户交通行为特征，通过离散选择模型和结构方程模型相结合的方法研究用户交通行为变化的影响因素和影响机制，在此基础上考虑到交通需求的不确定性和动态特征，建立识别道路网络脆弱性的多准则交通平衡配流模型和基于元胞自动机的动态交通分配模型，并将这些模型推广应用于区域层面的脆弱性识别。通过加强时间维和空间维的道路网络脆弱性分析，提出不同应急管理阶段道路网络脆弱性的系统解决方案，并将其应用于具体城市的应急交通管理中。课题研究成果有助于降低道路网络的脆弱性，进一步提高道路网络预防和应对自然灾害和突发事件的能力。

中文关键词： 道路网络；脆弱性；交通行为；应急管理；交通平衡

英文摘要： The risks taken by the road network is increasing by days, and has a great impact on the entire network when a disruption or a traffic congestion happens to some weaknesses parts of the network .The study on the vulnerability of the road network has been gaining more and more scholar attentions. However, most researchers did not take the probability of traffic congestion without taking behavior changes into account which couldn't depict the dynamic and stochastic characteristics of traffic flow, and cause a deviation of the identification result with a real situation. This project analyses the users' traffic behavior after a road network unit failure by a declarative survey, studies the influence factors and influence mechanisms that change the users' traffic behavior by combining the discrete choice models and the structural equation models. On this basis, the project will take account of the uncertainty and dynamic characteristics of the traffic demand, build the multi-criteria traffic equilibrium assignment models and dynamic traffic assignment models according to cellular automaton to identify the vulnerability of road network, and apply these models to the regional vulnerability recognition. By strengthening the time and space dimensions analyses of the road network vulnerability, the project will put forward the system solutions for emergency management of road network vulnerability at different stages, and apply the traffic emergency management to a specific city. The research results will help to reduce the vulnerability of road networks, to enhance the capacity in preventing and responding to natural disasters and emergencies of the road network.

英文关键词： road network;vulnerability;travel behavior;emergency manaement;traffic equilibrium