随机交通网络行驶时间可靠性分析的关键问题研究

项目名称： 随机交通网络行驶时间可靠性分析的关键问题研究

项目编号： No.61273042

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 自动化技术、计算机技术

项目作者： 周溪召

作者单位： 上海理工大学

项目金额： 80万元

中文摘要： 交通网络可靠性的理论研究和实际应用被一致认为是交通研究的一个新的重要领域，也是目前倍受关注的热点领域。本项目是在分析交通网络随机性因素的基础上，运用交通流理论、随机图论、数理统计等理论与方法，探析交通流的特性、道路的交通特性、人的交通特性以及它们之间的相互作用，建立路段行驶时间估计模型、掌握行驶时间的分布形态；论证随机交通网络渐近连通可靠性；构建网络行驶时间可靠性计算模型并研究网络可靠性与OD划分关联性；在把握交通网络行驶时间可靠性计算方法的基础上，建立多因素影响条件下连续/离散交通网络设计模型，提出预防路网超负荷的交通控制模型。本研究的核心是对随机交通网络可靠性计算加以修正和完善，建立新模型。相关研究成果有助于丰富交通网络可靠性理论研究，对城市交通规划、设计和管理实践具有一定的指导意义。

中文关键词： 交通网络；行驶时间；可靠性；路段；OD

英文摘要： The theoretical study and practical application of transport network reliability of travel time has been considered as a new important research area of transportation study, currently catching a much closer attention within the academic circle. Based on the analysis of transport network's random factors, the study on the reliability of travel time within random transportation networks applies some theories and techniques concerned, such as traffic flow theory, random graph theory, mathematical statistics, to analyze characteristics of traffic flow, road and human travel behavior, as well as the interactions among them. In this study, the link travel time estimation model and the distribution pattern of travel time are to be established, together with discussion and examination of the asymptotically connected reliability of random transportation network. Besides, with the help of a calculation model of network travel time reliability, the correlation between network reliability and OD's divided connection are to be analized. Then, on basis of the reliability calculation method of travel time, a continuous / discrete transportation network design model will be built under the conditions of multi-factors, and propose a traffic control model to prevent network overload. The core purpose of this study is to create a

英文关键词： transportation network；travel time；reliability；link；origin destination