复杂气流条件下基于多元极值Copula的飞行风险概率结构建模方法研究

项目名称： 复杂气流条件下基于多元极值Copula的飞行风险概率结构建模方法研究

项目编号： No.61503406

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 自动化技术、计算机技术

项目作者： 薛源

作者单位： 中国人民解放军空军工程大学

项目金额： 21万元

中文摘要： 复杂气流场条件下的飞行风险是航空器运行过程中面临的一个重要问题。项目采用人-机-环复杂系统建模与风险评估方法相结合的手段，基于多元极值理论与Copula相关结构理论研究复杂气流条件下飞参极值的分布规律，量化分析飞参极值间的一致相关性，在此基础上探讨复杂气流场内飞行风险概率结构的建模方法。预期可以从理论上更深入地揭示复杂气流场内飞行风险的分布规律，提出一套基于多元极值Copula与蒙特卡洛仿真实验的飞行风险评估新方法，实现复杂气流场中飞行风险概率的量化计算，从而获得更多的飞机适航性、安全性先验数据来保障飞机在复杂气流条件下的飞行安全；从实践上可为飞机规避复杂气流场内的高风险区域，提前做出正确响应提供建议和参考，有助于提高航空器运行中的安全性水平，对于风险可视化技术的发展应用亦具有一定的工程价值。

中文关键词： 飞行风险评估；蒙特卡洛仿真计算；复杂气流；风险概率结构；多元极值理论

英文摘要： Flight risk under complex flow conditions is an important issue facing the aircraft safety. In the project, the complex system modelling of pilot-aircraft-environment is first combined with risk assessment methods. Then multivariate extreme value theory and Copula theory are taken to evaluate the distribution of extreme flight parameters. After that, the modelling methods of flight risk probability structure under complex flow conditions will be discussed. It is expected that the distribution mechanism of flight risk under complex flow conditions will be revealed, and a new flight risk assessment method based on multivariate extreme Copula and Monte Carlo simulation will be brought forward in this project. Flight risk probabilities when encountering complex flow can be calculated quantitatively using the new method above. In this way, the priori data of aircraft airworthiness and safety can be obtained to ensure flight safety under complex flow conditions; and visualization technology of flight risk can be developed. The work will also provide advice and references to help the aircraft to avoid high-risk areas in complex flow fields.

英文关键词： flight risk assessment;Monte Carlo simulation;complex flow;risk probability structure;multivariate extreme value theory