基于水资源系统的广义干旱风险评价与风险区划研究

项目名称： 基于水资源系统的广义干旱风险评价与风险区划研究

项目编号： No.51279207

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 水利工程

项目作者： 严登华

作者单位： 中国水利水电科学研究院

项目金额： 80万元

中文摘要： 作为水循环过程的一类极值过程，干旱随着气候变化和人类活动影响的深入，呈现出广发频发态势，危及到流域的水安全和生态安全。干旱事件的发生具有确定性和随机性的双重特性，需在遵循"自然-人工"二元水循环原理的基础上，采用风险模式进行应对。本项目拟从水资源系统的角度，提出广义干旱的内涵及定量化评价方法；并以干旱事件频发的海河流域为研究区，结合气候变化、下垫面条件改变、水利工程（群）等对干旱事件的影响特性，构建广义干旱演变的整体驱动模式，并定量识别其驱动机制；结合干旱事件演变的确定性和随机性特征，提出广义干旱风险评价指标体系、评价方法与基于3S技术的广义干旱风险区划方法，并绘制海河流域广义干旱风险区划图；以水资源配置技术为关键支撑，提出常态与极值过程相结合的水资源集合管理模式及水利工程（群）优化配置模式。通过本项目研究，将进一步发展变化环境下干旱应对理论与技术，并为海河流域干旱综合应对提供科学依据。

中文关键词： 广义干旱；水资源系统；风险评价；风险区划；风险应对

英文摘要： With the increasing impact of climate change and human activities, drought, as the extreme process in water cycle, happens in more area with higher frequency, and now it endangers the water and ecology security in river basin. The occurrences of drought events usually contain dual characteristics: determinacy and randomness. It should take a risk model on which is based on "natural-artificial" dualistic water cycle theory, to cope with this problem. From the perspective of the water resources system, the project proposes a connotation and a quantitative evaluation method to generalized drought. Haihe Basin with high frequency will be studied in this research to build a unitary driver model of generalized drought evolution after combining the influence characteristics with drought events, like the change of climate, underlying conditions and hydro projects (group),and the effects of individual influence characteristics will be quantitatively identified . After combining the dual characteristics of drought events, the risk assessment index systems, assessment methods and generalized drought risks zoning methods will be proposed based on 3S technology, and the Haihe Basin generalized drought risk zoning map will also be drew. Building the Water integration management mode with the normal and extreme processes in wa

英文关键词： generalized drought；water resources systems；risk assessment；risk division；risk response