气候变化下汉江流域极端水文事件的多模式集合预估及其不确定性研究

项目名称： 气候变化下汉江流域极端水文事件的多模式集合预估及其不确定性研究

项目编号： No.41501015

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 地质学

项目作者： 谷黄河

作者单位： 河海大学

项目金额： 22万元

中文摘要： 全球气候变化对洪水、干旱等极端水文事件的影响以及其不确定性，是亟需解决的科学问题。本课题针对当前异常的气候变化现象，瞄准极端水文事件，以受季风气候影响显著的汉江流域为研究对象，（1）评估CMIP5气候模式在汉江流域的模拟能力，研制多气候模式加权集合和概率预估模型对未来气候进行预测；(2)采用多种动力降尺度和统计降尺度方法，结合多个分布式水文模型，构建可靠性高的区域气候-水文嵌套模型，模拟分析汉江流域历史极端水文事件的时空变化规律；（3）发展基于贝叶斯理论的条件性和非条件性概率预测方法，量化排放情景、全球气候模式、降尺度方法和水文模型等方面的不确定性，预测未来30-50年气候变化对流域极端水文事件的影响程度，揭示气候变化对旱涝等极端水文事件的影响机制。研究成果可为气候变化背景下汉江流域水资源合理利用、南水北调中线工程的调度和管理等方面提供决策支持。

中文关键词： 气候变化；极端水文事件；分布式水文模型；不确定性；流域水循环

英文摘要： Projection and quantification of uncertainty for extreme hydrological events under climate change is a pressing scientific problem. Toward this end, the study in the Hanjiang basin will (1) propose a multi-model ensemble projection approach to generate reliable projections of future mean and extreme climate, where a given GCM from CMIP5 is assigned weight according to its performance in simulating climate characterizes in the Hanjiang basin; (2) based on a variety of downscaling methods and distributed hydrological models, construct a coupled atmospheric-hydrological modelling system with excellent skill in simulating extreme hydrological events, to model extreme streamflow in the control period and analyze the response mechanism of extreme hydrological events; (3) develop the unconditional probability and conditional probability projection methods, to simulate the extreme streamflow in the coming 30 to 50 years and investigate the uncertainty sources influence on the projection of extreme hydrological events. The results of the proposed study will offer valuable insights into the management of water resources in Hanjiang basin as well as the operation and management for the middle route of South to North water diversion project.

英文关键词： climate change;extreme hydrological events;distributed hydrological model;uncertainties;watershed water cycle