有限理性下的最优停止理论及应用

项目名称： 有限理性下的最优停止理论及应用

项目编号： No.71501048

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 郁培文

作者单位： 复旦大学

项目金额： 18.5万元

中文摘要： 在最优停止问题中，决策者需要决定最佳停止时间以获得最大收益。最优停止问题在管理科学，金融学，经济学和营销学中有着广泛的应用。传统研究一般假定决策者是理性的，从而能够制定一个明确的计划，并且严格执行该计划。然而，近年来心理学的研究表明，人们对现时的效用和福利的关注要强于对未来效用和福利的关注，从而导致决策者在未来不能严格执行当下所制定的计划。本课题将决策者的有限理性引入到最优停止问题的模型中，从三个方面展开研究。首先，从动态规划和博弈论角度，研究分析具有有限理性的决策者的决策行为；其次，从机制设计的角度，研究企业应该如何设计合约以应对有限理性下的最优停止行为；最后，结合具体案例背景，探讨这些模型在个人的消费，储蓄，以及医疗健康等决定，企业的研发行为，市场进入行为等实践中的应用。本项目是运营管理和行为经济学交叉研究课题，项目成果既丰富了运营管理的研究内容，也为现实中的很多运营问题提供指导。

中文关键词： 有限理性；顾客行为；动态规划；机制设计；行为运营管理

英文摘要： In an optimal stopping problem, a decision maker maximizes her expected utility by making a binary choice, in each time period, to stop or to continue. Optimal stopping problems appear frequently in operations, finance, marketing, and economics and are often studied under exponential discounting, which assumes that the discount rate between any two time periods is the same irrespective of when the rate is evaluated. However, this assumption is not psychologically or normatively plausible. Decision makers are biased toward immediate gratification, and they prefer to enjoy rewards now and to postpone costs. This proposal incorporates decision makers' bounded rationality into the optimal stopping framework. We first investigate whether agents follow a threshold stopping policy as well as differences in agent behavior. Then we study how a rational firm should respond to consumer biases. Lastly, we will discuss the applications of our model in individual's consumption, saving and healthcare decisions, as well as in firm's research and development and time-to market decisions. This project contributes to the operations management and also the economics literature. Moreover, it offers practical insights into many important operational problems.

英文关键词： bounded rationality;consumer behavior;dynamic programming;mechanism design;behavioral operations