P2P网络放贷理性程度检验与关键影响因素研究—羊群行为的视角

项目名称： P2P网络放贷理性程度检验与关键影响因素研究—羊群行为的视角

项目编号： No.71302008

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 陈冬宇

作者单位： 苏州大学

项目金额： 21万元

中文摘要： P2P网络放贷(Online Peer-to-Peer Lending)是一种类似C2C的新兴电子商务模式，将交易主体从实体商品拓展到信贷资金领域，最近吸引了实务界和学术界的广泛关注。该市场究竟是代表民间金融未来发展方向的理性市场，还是充满泡沫的非理性市场，成为业界、学者和政府关心的重要问题。本项目基于信息不对称理论，从羊群行为视角，首次研究我国P2P网络放贷行为的理性水平和关键影响因素。本项目现实意义在于：1）有助于评估该市场产生投机性泡沫的风险，为市场监管提供依据和科学思路；2）有助于设计更好的P2P网络放贷机制，提高市场效率。本项目理论贡献在于：1）打破羊群行为必然导致市场无效率的旧有观念，从特征和后果两个角度分析理性和非理性羊群行为，构建放贷理性检验模型；2）从理性角度重新审视羊群行为的形成机理及对市场效率的影响，研究其在汇聚大众智慧方面的积极作用，扩展现有羊群行为理论。

中文关键词： P2P网络借贷；羊群行为；互联网金融；决策理性；社会网络

英文摘要： Online peer-to-peer lending (P2P lending) is a new type of e-commerce .Whether it is a rational market or an irrational burble market draws extensive attention from practitioners, academia and government. Based on the theory of information asymmetry, this project aims to investigate the rationality of lending activities by examining the characteristics of lenders' herding behavior (i.e., following the trend or the crowds), the relationship between herding behavior and market efficiency, and the market mechanism of herding by studying critical factors influencing herding in the market. The practical implication of this project is twofold: on the one hand, by empirically examining the rationality of Chinese P2P lending market that has never been studied before, we can assess the risks of bubbling in the market and provide evidence and support for policy-making; on the other hand, a good understanding of lending behavior enables us to propose better models to improve market efficiency. Theoretically, by re-evaluating the rational side of herding behavior and examining its positive effects on leveraging the wisdom of the crowds, we can build a comprehensive herding model and enrich the current herding theory in the financial market.

英文关键词： P2P lending；herding behavior；Internet Finance；Rational Decision；Social Network