水环境约束下的环鄱阳湖区城市异速增长机理分析与情景模拟

项目名称： 水环境约束下的环鄱阳湖区城市异速增长机理分析与情景模拟

项目编号： No.41261037

项目类型： 地区科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 刘耀彬

作者单位： 南昌大学

项目金额： 48万元

中文摘要： 研究不同约束条件下的城市异速增长问题来揭示城市体系空间结构差异是一个重要的科学命题。本项目基于新经济地理学分析视角和城市体系演化理论，构建水环境约束下的湖域地区城市异速增长分析框架；以环鄱阳湖区为例，在GIS和RS技术支持下，采用探索性空间数据分析、标度模型、分形和灰色关联技术对其城市异速增长模式与规律进行分析；构建AutoLogistic因素模型和DS社会空间动力学模型对城市异速增长的机理进行揭示；建立城市体系多重动态均衡竞争模型分析城市异速增长的多重均衡条件和过程，并利用系统动力学、元胞自动机和多准则分析建立模拟模型，对三种不同竞争情景下的环鄱阳湖区城市异速增长进行模拟。本研究将为城市体系空间结构的理论和经验研究提供新的证据和方法菜单，为环鄱阳湖城市群与生态经济区可持持续发展提供科学决策依据。

中文关键词： 规模分布；分形；异速增长；竞争合作机制；情景模拟

英文摘要： It is a worthless scientific proposition to reveal the spatial structure disparity of urban system by analyzing allometric growth of cities that are constrained by the different natural conditions. According to the theories of new economic geography and urban system evolution, the project considers water environment as a unique background to research the city allometric growth. Based on GIS and RS, the project will analyze the pattern and law of the city allometric growth around Poyang Lake by using exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), scale model (SM), fractal (RS) and grey correlative technology (GRT), and build an autologistic model and Dendrinos-Sonis dynamic model to reveal the mechanism of city allometric growth, and establish a multiple dynamic equilibrium competition model to analyze the possible conditions and processes of city allometric growth, and construct an integration model to simulate the three different competition scenarios of city allometric growth by using system dynamics(SD), cellular automata (CA) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The project will add the new evidence and methods to theoretical and empirical research on the spatial structure of urban system, and provide the scientific basis for Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone to sustainable development.

英文关键词： Hierarchy-size distribution；Fractal；Allometric growth；Competition and Cooperation Mechanism；Scenario Simulation