基于交通流量概率推理的不规则交叉口交通信号配时参数优化研究

项目名称： 基于交通流量概率推理的不规则交叉口交通信号配时参数优化研究

项目编号： No.71461026

项目类型： 地区科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 崔成优

作者单位： 延边大学

项目金额： 34万元

中文摘要： 近年来城市道路交通拥堵问题日趋严重，而一半以上的交通拥挤现象都会出现在交叉口附近，交叉口已成为了城市道路网络的瓶颈中的瓶颈。针对此问题，通过合理的交通信号配时来控制通过交叉口交通量的方法一直被认为是比较有效的方法。虽然，国内外很多学者进行了相关研究并取得了一些成果，但缺少针对不规则交叉口交通信号配时优化的研究。而我国在快速城镇化过程中，对城市道路交通网规划不合理，导致在很多城市中出现了大量的不规则平面交叉口。考虑到不规则交叉口交通流量存在着较大的不确定性，本研究小组拟提出基于交通流量概率推理的不规则交叉口交通信号配时参数优化方法。首先，分析交叉口交通流量在不同外部条件下的变化机理。其次，基于分析结果建立交叉口排队长度概率分布预测模型。最后，提出根据排队长度概率分布推算出的拥堵概率指标最小为目标的不规则平面交叉口交通信号配时参数优化方法。

中文关键词： 不规则交叉口；概率推理；交通信号配时；优化模型；拥堵概率指标

英文摘要： In recent years, traffic congestion has become a serious problem, and almost all of traffic jam occurs at intersections in urban area. In such cases, traffic signal control is an reasonable method to reduce the traffic jam. Many researchers have been studying optimization problems for parameters of traffic signal timing and obtained some achievements. However, there has been a long lack of studies on the traffic signal parameters of irregular intersection. On the other hands, most of cities exists many irregular intersections duo to the unreasonable road networks planning in the process of rapid urbanization. At irregular intersections areas, the traffic flow has much more uncertainties. Thus, our research focuses on the optimization method for parameters of traffic signal timing at irregular intersection based on the probabilistic reasoning of traffic flow. Firstly, to analysis the changing mechanism of traffic flows at irregular intersections under the different conditions. Secondly, to establish a forecasting model for probabilistic distribution of traffic queue based on the results of analyzing. Finally, to propose an optimization method for parameters of traffic signal timing at irregular intersection according to minimization of an congestion probability index.

英文关键词： Irregular intersection;Probabilistic reasoning;Traffic signal timing;Optimization model;Congestion probability index