人口结构变迁视角下的中国房产需求变动与房价走势

项目名称： 人口结构变迁视角下的中国房产需求变动与房价走势

项目编号： No.71403290

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 刘学良

作者单位： 中国社会科学院经济研究所

项目金额： 22万元

中文摘要： 中国自2004年房价出现暴涨以来，政府不断出台各种调控政策试图抑制房价，但总体来看收效甚微，房价甚至陷入“越调越涨”的怪圈。究其原因，未充分彻底地搞清中国房价的上涨的动力和原因导致政策没有“对症下药”是调控失败的重要成因。本课题试图从人口结构动态变迁的视角分析中国的房产市场问题。人口的动态结构是一个社会经济发展的最根本驱动力之一，对房地产市场同样如此。本课题将首先在已有研究基础上，从婚姻人口冲击、人口年龄结构的变迁角度对中国1998年房地产市场化改革以来的房价波动做出解答。然后，在利用一个人口增长和迁移模型对未来中国人口规模和结构进行预测的基础上，本课题将对未来中国全国和分地区的房产需求和房价进行预测，预测工作十分具有实践价值，同时也富有挑战性。基于上述研究成果，课题将对中国房地产市场的调控政策做出分析和探讨，针对住房市场后续调控措施和制度安排提出针对性的建议。

中文关键词： 房产需求；房产价格；房地产泡沫；人口结构；经济预测

英文摘要： Since the sharp surge of housing price from 2004, China has introduced a number of policies aiming to tame the skyrocketing housing price, however the result turned out to be disappointing. One important reason for the disappointing result is that we failed to figure out the prime drive and reason of housing price growth in the past, which leaded to misleading policy. We intend to investigate China’s housing market from the perspective of demographic structure transition. Demography is a fundamental drive of economic and social development including housing market. We first intend to explain China’s housing price fluctuation from 1998 with marriage population shock and age structure transition. Then based on China's population scale and structure projection data using a population growth and migration model, we plan to forecast the housing demand and price of China both on national and regional level, the forecasting job is with great practical value and also a big challenge. With the research achievement above, we will analyze the possible regulation policy and discuss which is better for the case of China, come up with some reasonable advices about housing market regulation policy design.

英文关键词： Housing Demand;Housing Price;Real Estate Bubble;Demographic Structure;Economic Forecasting