房价变动的人口城镇化效应：基于主体行为选择的视角

项目名称： 房价变动的人口城镇化效应：基于主体行为选择的视角

项目编号： No.71503117

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 李永乐

作者单位： 南京财经大学

项目金额： 17万元

中文摘要： 房价已成为近年来社会各界关注的焦点，抑制房价过快上涨，防止抬高城镇化门槛，成为促进我国城镇化质量提升的重要途径，然而房价变动影响人口城镇化进程的路径尚不清晰，亟需深入研究。本研究以房价为切入点，构建一个基于“房价变动-地方政府/家庭/企业行为选择-人口城镇化”的理论分析框架，研究房价通过影响地方政府、家庭和企业等主体行为选择进而对人口城镇化产生影响的作用路径，从而系统阐释房价变动的人口城镇化效应。通过构造一个含有房价的核心-边缘（CP）模型从理论上推演房价变动对人口乡城流动和城市间流动的影响机理，通过构建联立方程模型进行实证研究，采用GMM三阶段最小二乘法（3SLS）估计和测算房价变动对人口城镇化影响的方向、大小和显著性，并进行不同等级（一线、二线、三线和四线）城市和“限购”前后的比较研究，研究结果可为完善差别化的房地产价格调控措施提供决策依据，并服务于我国新型城镇化建设。

中文关键词： 房价；人口城镇化；CP模型；行为分析

英文摘要： The price of real estate being the focus of all society, there appears an important approach to the promotion of the urbanization quality: to restrain the rapid increasing residence price, thus to avoid the uprise of urbanization threshold. However, it requires thorough study about how real estate price influences the process of population urbanization. This study starts from housing price to construct an theoretical analysis frame to analyze the effects of population urbanization based on house price change. With an overall study of the logical link of house price to the urbanization, it sets up a Core-periphery Model to deduct the influence of change of house price on the immigration of people from rural areas to urban areas as well as among the cities, which helps an all-round study of the effect of real estate price change on population urbanization. To get the degree and direction of the effect, a simultaneous-equation model is developed to explore the interaction between house price and population urbanization, and GMM three-stage least-squares method is employed to estimate the model. The comparative study among different cities(from big to small) and pro-and after the restriction on house purchasing can both provide enough material to perfect the regulation measures of residence price change and improve urbanization quality which is required by New Urbanization Plan(2014-2020).

英文关键词： Housing price;Population Urbanization;Core-periphery Model;Behavior analysis