社会长期护理保险：支出预测和政策建议

项目名称： 社会长期护理保险：支出预测和政策建议

项目编号： No.71203133

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 宏观管理与政策

项目作者： 黄枫

作者单位： 上海财经大学

项目金额： 19万元

中文摘要： "十二五"时期，我国将出现老年人口增长高峰，老龄问题成为关系国计民生和国家长治久安的重大问题。生活不能自理的老人迅速增加，照料因病致残的老人将给家庭带来沉重的经济负担。德、日、韩等国先后建立了长期护理保险制度，利用保险分散家庭面临的巨额护理支出风险，保障老年人护理服务需求，对我国具有较强的借鉴意义。本课题采用宏观模拟的方法，借鉴CBM（Cell-based Model）模型，对我国老年人健康和护理支出进行中长期预测分析；并运用非寿险精算技术，结合各国实践经验，探索适合我国当前经济、社会发展水平的老年人长期护理保险制度，旨在分散日趋严重的人口老化和家庭结构变化带来的家庭护理支出风险，提高老年人生活质量，增进社会保障和福利水平，促进社会和谐发展。本研究的创新之处在于，使用家庭跟踪调查数据，运用数量分析方法进行制度设计和评价，基于微观行为制定公共政策，为我国社会保障和老龄政策的制定提供客观依据。

中文关键词： 人口老龄化；长期护理；支出；社会保险；健康

英文摘要： The issue of population aging becomes more and more important in the social and economic development in China. The first peak of old population growth appears during the period of the 12th Five-Year Plan. Therefore, the demand of long-term care (LTC) services for elder people will increase rapidly in the near future.Unfortunately, the expenditures of LTC, especially in institutions, can be catastrophic for families. Developed countries, like Germany, Japan and Korea have introduced mandatory long-term care insurance (LTCI) to cover the risk of dependency and disability. Their experience might shed lights on the LTC system in China in term of sharing the burden and improving the social welfare. In this study, we use cell-based model to make three sets of estimations: of the future numbers of dependent elder people, of the services that they will need, and of the expenditures that those services will require. Furthermore, using non-life actuarial techniques, we propose the social insurance scheme for long-term care that is in accordance with social and economic development. This project differs from the previous research in several ways. Firstly, individual level survey data are employed to investigate the consumption behavior of long-term care services. Secondly, public long-term care policy is built upon the mi

英文关键词： Population aging；Long-term care；Expenditure；Social Insurance；Health