管线渗漏诱发城市地面塌陷灾变机理及其基于SVM技术风险预测模型研究

项目名称： 管线渗漏诱发城市地面塌陷灾变机理及其基于SVM技术风险预测模型研究

项目编号： No.51508313

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 建筑科学

项目作者： 钟世英

作者单位： 山东建筑大学

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 管线渗漏作用下由水力潜蚀作用产生的硬壳层-土体二元结构演化过程和塌陷突变机理是研究城市地面塌陷灾害突发的关键科学问题。针对管线渗漏诱发的松散土体型城市地面塌陷特点概化形成上部硬壳层和均质土体的二元结构物理模型。采用土拱和板壳理论建立基于硬壳层-土体二元结构的地面临界塌陷力学模型。通过模型试验和数值分析揭示管线渗漏作用下地面塌陷的演化机理，建立管线渗漏特性与塌陷形态关系模型。以计算和模型测试结果、塌陷案例及深圳市部分管线检测到隐患点数据为样本，基于支持向量技术建立可以进行塌陷风险评价和塌陷范围预测的管线渗漏诱发的松散型城市地面塌陷风险预警模型。本项目的研究将加深对管线渗漏作用下松散土体型城市地面塌陷突发机理的认识，将先进的SVM学习技术引入到城市地面塌陷风险评估领域，将有效促进岩土工程、管道工程、统计学习理论等学科的交叉发展，并为城市地面塌陷风险预测和地面塌陷治理的控制与决策提供科学依据。

中文关键词： 管线渗漏；地面塌陷；支持向量机；土拱理论；板壳理论

英文摘要： The soil structure change under hydraulic erosion and many disaster factors interaction are the key scientific problems of ground collapse hazard in urban.The loose-soil-ground-collapse caused by pipe leakage is composed upper crust layer and homogeneous soil. Critical- collapse- state- mechanical model based on crust layer - homogeneous soil model is estiblished on soil arch theory and simply supported plate and shell theory.Based on results from the mechanical model, the model test and numerical simulation, analysis of pipe leakage induced disaster under crust layer- homogeneous soil collapse scope and depth rule.The loose-soil-ground-collapse caused by pipe leakage risk assessment model is estiblished on the results from mechanical calculation, model test, part of the pipeline of Shenzhen city to hidden danger point detection data on ground collapse .Risk forecast model based on SVM of ground collapse in urban set up , and check the classification accuracy of prediction model.The project will know deeply ground collapse hazard under many disaster factors interaction in urban . Risk forecast model based on SVM of ground collapse in urban will effectively promote the cross of geotechnical engineering, engineering mechanics, statistics and other disciplines. This model will provide scientific basis for multiple point risk prediction and ground subsidence control and decision sciences .

英文关键词： pipe leakage;ground collapse;support vector machine;soil arch theory;plate- shell theory