过去30年气候变化对华北平原冬小麦产量影响的相对作用及不确定性分析

项目名称： 过去30年气候变化对华北平原冬小麦产量影响的相对作用及不确定性分析

项目编号： No.41301091

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 刘玉洁

作者单位： 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所

项目金额： 26万元

中文摘要： 准确量化气候变化和人为管理措施对作物产量影响的相对作用是气候变化影响研究中的重要科学问题，也是制定适应气候变化策略的前提和基础。本研究以华北平原冬小麦为研究对象，基于野外定位观测试验和农气站点长时间序列的观测资料，结合统计分析和过程机理模型CERES-Wheat，分析过去30年华北平原冬小麦产量的变化特征及其与关键气候要素的相关性；对作物模型进行校验，模拟仅气候变化影响下的产量变化，通过计算实际产量与模拟产量的残差，量化气候变化和管理措施对华北平原冬小麦产量变化的相对作用；开展模型敏感性实验，揭示冬小麦产量对整个生育期温度、降水、辐射等关键气候要素和CO2浓度变化的敏感性，辨识关键驱动因子及其作用；最后，基于概率分布函数进行不确定性分析。本研究预期可以提升气候变化对农业生产影响的科学认识，也可以为农业适应气候变化策略的制定提供一定科学基础。

中文关键词： 产量；气候变化；人为管理措施；概率分布；不确定性分析

英文摘要： Accurately quantifying the impacts and the relative contribution of climate change and artificial management measures on crop yields is an important scientific issue in the study of climate change impacts on agricultural production, and is also the precondition and basis to develop climate change adaptation strategies. This study selects the winter wheat in the North China Plain as study objects. Based on the long time series observed data from field comprehensive stations and agro-meteorology stations, combing statistical analysis and process mechanism CERES-Wheat, the variation characteristic of wheat yield and its correlation with key climate elements during the past 30 years will be analyzed. The process mechanism based model CERES-Wheat will be calibrated and validated basing on the field experimental data and agro-meteorological observation data. Then the yield change under 'only climate change' scenario without artificial management will be simulated. Through calculating the residual between actual and simulated yields, the relative contribution of climate change (the key climatic factors such as temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, etc.) and artificial management measures (cultivars, fertilization, tillage, irrigation and other human management) will be obtained. After that, model sensitivity exp

英文关键词： Yield;；Human management measures；Climate change；Probability distribution；Uncertainty analysis