项目名称: 全球气候变化下物种分布模型的不确定性研究
项目编号: No.31270563
项目类型: 面上项目
立项/批准年度: 2013
项目学科: 生物科学
项目作者: 郭庆华
作者单位: 中国科学院植物研究所
项目金额: 77万元
中文摘要: 气候是制约生物分布、生长和繁衍的主要因素,近百年来的气候变化已严重威胁到全球物种多样性。物种分布模型是研究气候变化对物种分布影响的主要工具,而已有的模型很少考虑到数据源和模型方法等因素的不确定性对模型预测精度的影响,严重影响了其结论的有效性。因此本项目从数据源和模型两方面对该问题进行探讨:(1) 对物种采样数据和环境变量数据的不确定性进行分析,寻求提高数据精度的方法;(2) 分析不同数据组合对物种分布模型结果的精度贡献,探究不同数据源的不确定性对模型的影响情况;(3) 估算物种分布模型自身的不确定性,并对多种数据源进行敏感性分析,理解其误差传递机制,并提出降低不确定性的方案;(4) 对环境变量中的气候数据单独研究,引入多种协变量提高插值精度,并计算其空间不确定性。基于此,本研究建立的不确定性理论框架,对理解气候变化对物种分布的影响机制以及制定生物多样性保护策略方面有着重大的理论和实践意义。
中文关键词: 物种分布模型;气候变化;不确定性;;
英文摘要: Climate is an important factor determining the growth, distribution, and evolution of the planet species. The global climate change is considered to be a major threat to the global biodiversity. Therefore, it is very important to understand what the impact of climate change on species distributions is. Species distribution modeling (SDM) is an important tool to study the relationship between climate and species distributions. However, spatial uncertainty resulted from data and models are rarely considered by researchers, which greatly decrease the reliability of the conclusion drawn from the model predictions. Therefore, in this study, we propose to study the impact of uncertainty on species distribution modeling under different climate change scenarios; woody plants species in China are taken as the study case. The uncertainties of data from different sources such as environmental variables and species localities will be studied; their effects on model prediction will be evaluated through errors propagation and sensitivity analysis. The aim is to minimize the uncertainty of model prediction by reducing the uncertainties of data and then to draw feasible conclusions from model results. In sum, this project can provide practitioners some fundamental guidelines to study the impact of climate change on species dist
英文关键词: Species Distribution Model;Climate Change;Uncertainty;;