气候变化下流域径流过程复杂性的测度与辨识

项目名称： 气候变化下流域径流过程复杂性的测度与辨识

项目编号： No.41201036

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 地理学

项目作者： 桑燕芳

作者单位： 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所

项目金额： 26万元

中文摘要： 揭示气候变化下流域径流过程的复杂变化特性，是正确认识流域水文情势演变规律以及解决气候变化下水文水资源问题的重要基础。为了准确地揭示流域径流过程的复杂特性，基于复杂性理论，选择不同气候分区的黑河和海河流域为典型研究区，开展水文过程复杂性的分析与测度、基于复杂性测度的流域径流变化特性识别与对比、基于复杂性测度的流域径流过程对气候变化响应的辨识等内容的研究。通过应用复杂性理论，从统计测度、非线性测度、多时间尺度测度、混沌测度等不同角度构建水文过程复杂性测度的指标分类体系，丰富和发展流域径流过程复杂特性研究的新思路和方法。利用统计分析和物理成因分析相结合，通过揭示不同气候变化条件对各流域径流过程复杂性程度的影响，并进行敏感性分析，深入认识气候变化对流域径流过程影响的时空差异性，发展基于复杂性理论的气候变化水文响应辨识研究的技术途径，为气候变化下流域水文预报和水资源管理等工作提供科学依据。

中文关键词： 径流；水文特征；复杂性测度；不确定性；气候变化

英文摘要： Identification of the complex characteristics of basin runoff processes under the changing climatic systems is an important topic, as it is the basis for understanding the future water regimes and guiding various practical water activities in a basin. In order to accurately identify the complex characteristics of basin runoff processes, two typical basins (namely Heihe and Haihe River Basins) in China with different climatic conditions are selected, and the complexity theories are employed to study three main issues: analysis and quantification of the complexity of hydrological processes, complexity theory-based identification and comparison of basin runoff processes' characteristics, and complexity theory-based identification of responses of basin runoff processes' variations to climate change impacts. By employing the complexity theories, an indicator classified system for quantifying the basin runoff processes' complexity is firstly established from four aspects: statistical measure, nonlinear measure, multi-scale measure, and chaos measure respectively, mainly for developing the new ideas and new approaches for studying the basin runoff processes' characteristics. Then, by combining the mathematical analyses with hydrological genetic analyses, the runoff's characteristics in two selected basins under differe

英文关键词： Runoff；Hydrological characteristics；Complexity quantification；Uncertainty；Climate change