基于多目标决策的关中天水经济区水资源时空优化配置研究

项目名称： 基于多目标决策的关中天水经济区水资源时空优化配置研究

项目编号： No.41471452

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 地理学

项目作者： 王丽霞

作者单位： 长安大学

项目金额： 85万元

中文摘要： 水是生命之源、生产之要、生态之基。关中天水经济区是《国家西部大开发十一五规划》中明确的三大重点经济区之一，处于承东启西、连接南北的战略要地。然而区域人口和经济的快速发展，势必导致水资源供需矛盾日趋尖锐。因此，优化配置有限的水资源，提高综合利用率，已经成为可持续发展亟待解决的重大课题。由于区域差异性和方法多样性，目前的研究仍存在一些问题。例如基于多目标决策的水资源时空综合配置研究较少，特别是针对关天经济区的研究更是少闻。鉴于此，项目拟以关天经济区（包括渭河流域天水和关中段）的自然和社会经济等因素的动态资料为数据支持，以RS和GIS空间分析为技术支持，分别采用神经网络法、生态水文模型法、长系列分析法测评区域社会经济需水、生态环境需水和可供水总量；在此基础上，耦合灰色线性规划和CA-Markov方法，构建基于像元微单元的水资源时空优化模型，提出多目标、多水源、多约束和多保证率的综合配置方案。

中文关键词： 水资源优化配置；多目标决策；时空尺度；地理信息系统；关中天水经济区

英文摘要： Water is the source of life, the key of production, the foundation of ecology. Guan-tian Economic Zone, one of the three key economic Zones clearly defined in the 'Eleventh Five-year Plan of China's Western Development Program', lies in the strategic point, serving as a link between the Eastern and Western parts of China, connecting north and south. However, the rapid development of regional population and economy will definitely intensify the contradictions between supplements and requirements about water resources. Therefore, the optimal allocation of limited water resources and the increase of comprehensive utilization rate have become a major subject urgent to be resolved for the sustainable development. Due to the differences among regions and diversities of methods, some problems still have existed in the current researches. For example, few researches, especially aimed at Guan-tian Economic Zone, have been done on the spatio-temporal optimal allocations of water resources based on multi-objective decisions. Thus, project is proposed, taking the dynamic data in Guan-tian Economic Zone (including Tianshui and Guanzhong areas in the Wei River Basin) concerning water, soil, weather condition, and the RS and GIS spatial analysis technologies as supports, and using neural network methods and hydrological ecological models assessing the eco-environmental water requirements and the social-economical water demands; on this basis, being coupled with grey linear programming and CA-Markov models, establishing the spatial optimal allocation of limited water resources models based on pixel micro-units, proposing multi-objective allocation schemes based on the different levels of water consumption demands, different guarantee rates, as well as different water sources (surface water, ground water and transferring water).

英文关键词： water resources optimal allocation;multi-objective decisions;spatial and temporal scales;geographic information system;Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Zone