气候变化对蚊媒传染病传播影响的数学描述及模型研究

项目名称： 气候变化对蚊媒传染病传播影响的数学描述及模型研究

项目编号： No.11201236

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 数理科学和化学

项目作者： 万辉

作者单位： 南京师范大学

项目金额： 22万元

中文摘要： 近年来，随着全球气候的变化，人类的生存环境也发生着越来越大的变化。而这些变化对于传染病特别是以疟疾为代表的蚊媒传染病的传播有着很大影响。气候变化改变了作为传播媒介的蚊子所处的生态环境和地理分布，增加了蚊子的繁殖速度、侵袭力并缩短了病原体的潜伏期。本项目将基于蚊媒传染病的传播机理和特点，着重研究如下三类问题：（1）气候变化对蚊子种群影响的数学建模研究。（2）气候变化对疟疾、登革热等不同的蚊媒传染病传播影响的数学建模研究。（3）气候变化对于蚊媒传染病的一般性影响以及气候因素影响下空间异质性对蚊媒传染病传播影响的数学建模研究。通过分析模型的渐近性态、分支等现象以及基本再生数中气候影响因子的敏感性等，预测蚊媒传染病的发展变化趋势，衡量气候变化对各种蚊媒传染病传播的相同和不同的影响。这项研究将会为气候变化情形下合理配置和利用卫生资源提供理论基础，并可应用于疟疾等蚊媒传染病的预防和控制实践中。

中文关键词： 气候变化；蚊子；蚊媒传染病；数学模型；基本再生数

英文摘要： Recently, with climate changing, the living environment of human is changing more and more, which affects the infectious disease transmission greatly, especially for the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases, e.g. malaia. Cimate change changes the living environment and geographical distribution, increases the reproduction rate and invasiveness of mosquitoes. Besides, climate change also shortens the incubation period of pathogen. On the basis of transmission mechanism and characteristics of mosquito-borne diseases, this project will study the following three questions chiefly: (1) modelling the impact of climate change on the population dynamics of mosquito; (2) modelling the impact of climate change on the transmission of different mosquito-borne diseases. (3) modelling the common impact on all mosquito-borne diseases and how the spatial heterogeneity affects the dynamics of mosquito-borne disease epidemiology. By studying the asymtotic behavior and bifurcation and analyzing the sensibility of impact factors of climate change in the basic reproduction number, we try to forecast the development tendency of mosquito-borne diseases and estimate the common and different impacts of climate change on trasmission dynamics of mosquito-borne diseases. This study will provide a theoretical principle for allocating an

英文关键词： Climate change；Mosquito；Mosquito-borne diseases；Mathematical model；Basic reproduction number