流动人口对新兴传染病防控影响的数学建模与研究

项目名称： 流动人口对新兴传染病防控影响的数学建模与研究

项目编号： No.11471089

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 数理科学和化学

项目作者： 刘胜强

作者单位： 哈尔滨工业大学

项目金额： 55万元

中文摘要： 我国城乡流动人口以及与之相关的城中村、春运等新现象，增加了诸如甲型H1N1流感、SARS等新兴传染病的传播风险，并为其防治带来了新挑战。因此，研究流动人口背景下新兴传染病的传播规律及其防治策略，对于未来科学处置新兴传染病可能引发的公共卫生事件具有重要意义。本项目按照不同人口流动范围尺度建立相应的新兴传染病传播数学模型，研究人口流动对新兴传染病传播规律与防控策略的影响，包含如下研究内容：(1)建立并研究城中村背景下、社区交叉感染的城市突发新兴传染病数学模型，研究城中村社区防治对于控制城市新兴传染病传播策略的影响；(2)建立并研究城乡范围人口流动的新兴传染病斑块扩散模型，研究城乡间春运等迁移模式以及城乡斑块迁移网络结构对防治疾病传播的影响；(3)建立并研究城市与周边辐射区域范围的、耦合城乡人口迁移以及社区交叉感染现象的异质性传染病数学模型，研究城中村、人口迁移对于新兴传染病传播与防治的影响。

中文关键词： 数学建模；新兴传染病；流动人口；动力学

英文摘要： In China, the floating people between urban and rural lead to occurs of urban villages and Spring move, which bring new challenges for controlling the spreading of emerging infectious diseases, i.e. A/H1N1 influenza,SARS et al. Therefore, the stud on the spreading mechanics and controlling stratigies of emerging disease based on environments of floating people, is scientifically meaningful for one to properly handle the possible public health events due to emerging disease in future. In this proposal, based on the different scale of population movements, we are to establish the appropriate mathematical model for spread of emerging infectious diseases, and to study the effects of floating people on the propagation and prevention of emerging infectious diseases, we have the following contents: (1) Modeling and studying Urban Villages background epidemic mathematical model which reflects the differences among urban communities, and finding strategy for the control of urban villages affected communities in emerging infectious diseases prevention and control; (2) Modeling and analysing the urban-rural scale infectious diseases dispersal model among patchy environments, and studying the infulences of dispersal between urban and rural as well as the patchy struct on prevention of the emerging disease; (3) Establishing and considering the general heterogenous epidemic model with group mixing and patchy dispersal, and studying the combined impacts of patchy migration and urban villages on the spreading and control of emerging disease.

英文关键词： Mathematical modeling;Emerging infectious disease;Floating people;Dynamics