基于土地利用变化的水文-水力耦合数学模型研究

项目名称： 基于土地利用变化的水文-水力耦合数学模型研究

项目编号： No.41471017

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 地质学

项目作者： 杨小柳

作者单位： 北京大学

项目金额： 90万元

中文摘要： 土地利用变化对水循环造成的影响是土地科学和水科学共同的热点问题，引发了国内外广泛的讨论。水循环诸因素中对土地利用变化最敏感者莫过于地表径流，如何定量地分析土地利用变化与地表径流的关系，一直是研究的焦点。本项目综合土地科学、水文学和水力学的理论和方法，以土地利用模型为基础，探索水文模型与水力学数学模型在流域尺度上的耦合。首先，重建土地利用的历史过程，找到土地利用变化的关键驱动因子和时间拐点；其次，以水文模型模拟降雨-径流关系，从其产流计算中获取地表径流过程；再次，将流域网格化，依据土地利用信息，生成地表径流的空间过程，针对土地利用类型选定曼宁系数，连同DEM数据输入每个网格；然后，改进水力学数学模型的动量平衡计算，建立基于土地利用变化的水文-水力耦合数学模型；最后，检验耦合模型的合理性。本项目旨在从空间和时间上准确量化土地利用变化对地表径流的扰动，为土地利用和水利建设的综合管理提供技术支持。

中文关键词： 土地利用；水循环；地表径流；水文模型；水力学数学模型

英文摘要： Identifying the effect of land use change on hydrological cycle is a topic shared among the experts of land use science and water science, triggering debates and discussion at home and abroad. Among elements of water cycle，surface flow is the most sensitive to land use change. How to quantitatively analyze the impact of land use change on surface flow has been the focus of research. At basin level, the project intends to couple hydrological and hydraulic models on the basis of land-use analysis by integrating the theories and methods from land use science, hydrology and hydraulics. Firstly, the historical process of land use change will be reconstructed to find key driving factors and time inflection point. Secondly, hydrological models will be calibrated and used to simulate the rainfall-runoff relation and surface flow will be derived from the runoff yield calculation. Thirdly, the studied basin will be divided into grids for computation and each grid will be given surface flow, Manning coefficient, according to the land use information, as well as DEM information. Fourthly, the hydrological and hydraulic models will be coupled with the above information and improving the momentum computation. Finally, the coupled model will be validated in terms of reasonability and sensitivity. This project aims to quantify the relationship between land use change and the disturbance to water cycle and provide technical support to coordinate land use planning and water resources development planning.

英文关键词： land use;water cycle;surface flow;hydrologic model;hydraulic model