中国热带气旋降水年际变化的多尺度调制和机理研究

项目名称： 中国热带气旋降水年际变化的多尺度调制和机理研究

项目编号： No.41475082

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 应明

作者单位： 中国气象局上海台风研究所

项目金额： 85万元

中文摘要： 热带气旋和夏季风是我国夏季两大主要降水系统。相比研究和年际预测业务均较成熟的夏季风降水，人们虽然已经认识到热带气旋降水对季节和年总降水量的贡献不可忽视，但其年际变化规律和影响因子的研究仍然不够，预测业务亦未见开展。本项目拟运用我国热带气旋降水观测资料和海气系统的再分析资料，运用统计分析、动力诊断和数值模拟相结合的方法，对我国热带气旋降水的年际变化规律及其潜在可预报性进行研究，从热带气旋降水具有的多时间尺度变化特征出发，分析热带气旋降水不同尺度变化对其年际变化的调制作用，探讨影响热带气旋降水年际变化的物理因子及其关键作用环节，探讨其潜在可预报性及可预报性的来源，建立热带气旋降水年际变化的物理概念模型。通过研究，本项目可以增进对我国夏季降水总体变化规律的系统理解和把握，亦可为热带气旋降水年际预测模型的开发应用提供基础支撑，从而为完善我国目前偏重于夏季风降水的旱涝年景预测业务体系提供有益的补充。

中文关键词： 热带气旋；降水量；年际变化；可预报性；多尺度

英文摘要： Both tropical cyclones (TCs) and summer monsoon are the dominant summertime rain systems in China. The interannual variation and prediction of summer monsoon rainfall were studied quite sufficiently. In contrast, although the importance of the TC precipitation to both seasonal and annual total precipitation were noticed, the interannual variation of TC precipitation and its impact factors were not understood adequately, and no any operational prediction scheme for the interannual variability of TC precipitation had been developed yet. This project attempt to investigate the inerannual variation and predictability of the TC precipitation based on the TC precipitation observation data of China and the global air-sea reanalysis data, by using statistical and dynamical analyses as well as the numerical modelling methods. Considering the multi-timescale characteristics of the TC precipitation, this project attempt to study the modulations of multi-timescale variations on the interannual variation of TC precipitation, investigate the physical factors affecting the interannual variation of TC precipitation and related essential processes, analyze the potential predictability and the sources of predictability, then establish a physical conceptual model of the interannual variation of TC precipitation. By implementation of this project, it can be expected to enhance our understanding about the inerannual variation of the total summer precipitation in China, to provide basic support to development and application of the prediction models of interannual TC precipitation, and consequently to benefit the operational system of prediction on floods or droughts partially based on the summer monsoon precipitation.

英文关键词： Tropical cyclone;Precipitation;interannual variation;predictability;multiscale