黄土高原区退耕还林政策生态效率评价与提升路径

项目名称： 黄土高原区退耕还林政策生态效率评价与提升路径

项目编号： No.71473195

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 姚顺波

作者单位： 西北农林科技大学

项目金额： 63万元

中文摘要： 2014年中央1号文件指出，我国将重启中断6年多的退耕还林还草工程，退耕还林是群众要票子，政府要被子的生态政策。为完善新一轮退耕还林政策，有必要对前期退耕还林政策生态效率进行客观准确评价。本项目以遥感影像处理得到的土地植被覆盖变化作为退耕还林政策生态效果测度指标；采用结构方程方法，构建退耕还林政策与自然、社会、经济共同作用的生态效果驱动机制模型，识别退耕还林政策对区域生态效果影响机理，有效分离出退耕还林政策的生态效果；用生态效果（土地植被覆盖变化）作为产出指标，以退耕还林财政支出及结构方程筛选出的其他驱动因子作为投入变量，构建Cobb-Douglas生产函数，用多层模型准确测定退耕还林政策生态效率；在此基础上，运用多投入多产出数据包络分析方法，求解非有效决策单元投入冗余，提出提升退耕还林政策生态效率的有效路径。

中文关键词： 退耕还林；生态效果；生态效率；土地植被覆盖变化；提升路径

英文摘要： Document NO.1 of the central government in 2014 points out that China will restart Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP) after more than 6 years' breaking off. The SLCP is known as a policy with participants asking for money and governments asking for vegetation cover. In order to perfect this new round SLCP, it is necessary to evaluate the ecological efficiency of the early SLCP objectively and precisely. This project will use land use/cover change acquired from remote-sensing image processing as the measurement index of the ecological effect of the SLCP. The joint impact of the SLCP, nature, society and economy on ecological effect will be built using structural equation modeling (SEM) to identify the influence mechanism of the SLCP and such isolate the ecological effect of the SLCP. Then a multilevel model with the form of Cobb-Douglas production function will be developed to measure the ecological efficiency of the SLCP, with ecological effect (land use/cover change) as the output indicator as well as financial expenditure of the SLCP and other indicators selected from the SEM analysis as input variables. On that basis, the input slacks of non-efficient decision-making units would be solved by multiple input multiple output data envelopment analysis, and such effective path to promote the ecological efficiency of the SLCP will be put forward.

英文关键词： Sloping Land Conversion Program;Ecological Effect;Ecological Efficiency;Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC);Improving Path