首都新机场建设对周边区域城市化进程的影响预测

项目名称： 首都新机场建设对周边区域城市化进程的影响预测

项目编号： No.41501430

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 李亚飞

作者单位： 中国民航大学

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 机场日益成为区域发展的核心动力，新机场建设对区域交通网络、土地利用及城市化水平都产生深刻的影响。在京津冀地区协同发展的大背景下，首都新机场建设将对区域的城市化进程产生巨大的推动作用。明确首都新机场对区域交通可达性的作用机理，探究新机场建设对城市化进程的作用范围，测度城市化发展的活跃区域对京津冀地区交通规划、城市间协调发展和首都职能调整都具有重要的实际意义。本研究以首都新机场为研究对象，以多源多时相遥感数据、交通规划数据、土地利用数据、机场发展统计数据和社会经济统计数据为数据源。在研究新机场建设对交通可达性时空格局演化的影响模式，分析交通可达性与土地利用的协同演化机制的基础上，构建基于城市化指数的土地利用城市化水平模拟模型。预测在不同交通规划情境下，首都新机场建设对机场周边区域土地城市化水平的空间分异及其演化的影响，为京津冀地区土地利用动态规划、城市化预测及区域协调发展提供科学数据支撑。

中文关键词： 时空预测；交通可达性；土地利用建模；城市化；首都新机场

英文摘要： Airports are increasingly becoming core power of regional development,the construction of the new airport has a profound impact on the regional transportation network, landuse and urbanization. In the integration and collaborative of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei province background, the regional urbanization will be promoted by the construction of new capital airport. Clarifying the mechanism of the regional transportation accessibility, exploring the scope of urbanization and measuring the urbanization active regions of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei provinces are of significant practical meaning to the traffic planning, inter-city coordination development and capital functions adjustment affected by the construction of the new capital airport. In this research, the new airport as a research object, the data source include the multi-source and multi temporal remote sensing data, traffic planning data, the data of land use, airport development statistical data and social economic statistical data. On the base of impact research of traffic accessibility in temporal and spatial pattern caused by the new airport construction and evolution mechanism analysis between traffic accessibility and landuse, the simulation model about the urbanization level of landuse will be constructed using urbanization indices. In the different traffic planning context, spatial differentiation and evolution of the urbanization level of landuse in the airport surrounding area will be predicted to provide the scientific data for landuse dynamic programming, urbanization prediction and regional coordinated development.

英文关键词： Temporal and spatial prediction;traffic accessibility; land use modeling;urbanization;the new capital airport