Temporal disaggregation is a method commonly used in official statistics to enable high-frequency estimates of key economic indicators, such as GDP. Traditionally, such methods have relied on only a couple of high-frequency indicator series to produce estimates. However, the prevalence of large, and increasing, volumes of administrative and alternative data-sources motivates the need for such methods to be adapted for high-dimensional settings. In this article, we propose a novel sparse temporal-disaggregation procedure and contrast this with the classical Chow-Lin method. We demonstrate the performance of our proposed method through simulation study, highlighting various advantages realised. We also explore its application to disaggregation of UK gross domestic product data, demonstrating the method's ability to operate when the number of potential indicators is greater than the number of low-frequency observations.
翻译:时间分类是官方统计中常用的一种方法,可以对国内生产总值等关键经济指标进行高频估计。传统上,这种方法仅依靠几个高频指标系列来得出估计数。然而,由于行政和替代数据源数量庞大且不断增加,因此需要根据高维环境调整这种方法。在本篇文章中,我们建议采用新的稀疏时间分类程序,并将这一程序与古典Chow-Lin方法相对照。我们通过模拟研究,展示了我们拟议方法的绩效,突出了所实现的各种优势。我们还探索了在对英国国内生产总值数据进行分类时应用的方法,显示了在潜在指标数量超过低频观测数量时该方法的运作能力。