There are many forecasting related packages in R with varied popularity, the most famous of all being \texttt{forecast}, which implements several important forecasting approaches, such as ARIMA, ETS, TBATS and others. However, the main issue with the existing functionality is the lack of flexibility for research purposes, when it comes to modifying the implemented models. The R package \texttt{smooth} introduces a new approach to univariate forecasting, implementing ETS and ARIMA models in Single Source of Error (SSOE) state space form and implementing an advanced functionality for experiments and time series analysis. It builds upon the SSOE model and extends it by including explanatory variables, multiple frequencies, and introducing advanced forecasting instruments. In this paper, we explain the philosophy behind the package and show how the main functions work.
翻译:R中有许多预测相关包,其流行程度各异,其中最著名的是\ textt{forecast},这些包采用若干重要的预测方法,如ARIMA、ETS、TBATS等,但是,现有功能的主要问题是缺乏研究上的灵活性,在修改实施的模式时,缺乏研究上的灵活性。R包 \ textt{smooth} 引入了一种新办法,在单一错误源(SSOE)国家空间表格中采用ETS和ARIMA模型,并采用先进的实验功能和时间序列分析功能。它以SOSE模型为基础,通过包括解释变量、多频率和引入先进的预测工具来扩展它。在本文中,我们解释了包背后的理念,并展示了主要功能是如何运作的。