CDANs: Temporal Causal Discovery from Autocorrelated and Non-Stationary Time Series Data

This study presents a novel constraint-based causal discovery approach for autocorrelated and non-stationary time series data (CDANs). Our proposed method addresses several limitations of existing causal discovery methods for autocorrelated and non-stationary time series data, such as high dimensionality, the inability to identify lagged causal relationships, and the overlook of changing modules. Our approach identifies both lagged and instantaneous/contemporaneous causal relationships along with changing modules that vary over time. The method optimizes the conditioning sets in a constraint-based search by considering lagged parents instead of conditioning on the entire past that addresses high dimensionality. The changing modules are detected by considering both contemporaneous and lagged parents. The approach first detects the lagged adjacencies, then identifies the changing modules and contemporaneous adjacencies, and finally determines the causal direction. We extensively evaluated the proposed method using synthetic datasets and a real-world clinical dataset and compared its performance with several baseline approaches. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in detecting causal relationships and changing modules in autocorrelated and non-stationary time series data.