Risk-limiting audits (RLAs) are rigorous statistical procedures meant to detect invalid election results. RLAs examine paper ballots cast during the election to statistically assess the possibility of a disagreement between the winner determined by the ballots and the winner reported by tabulation. The most ballot efficient approaches proceed by "ballot comparison." However, ballot comparison requires an untrusted declaration of the contents of each cast ballot, rather than a simple tabulation of vote totals. This "cast-vote record table" (CVR) is then spot-checked against ballots for consistency. In many practical settings, the cost of generating a suitable CVR dominates the cost of conducting the audit, preventing widespread adoption of these sample-efficient techniques. We introduce a new RLA procedure: a "lazy ballot comparison" audit. In this audit, a global CVR is never produced; instead, a three-stage procedure is iterated: 1) a batch is selected, 2) a CVR is produced for that batch, and 3) a ballot with the batch is sampled, inspected by auditors, and compared with the CVR. We prove that such an audit can achieve risk commensurate with standard comparison audits while generating a fraction of the CVR. We present three main contributions: 1) a formal adversarial model for RLAs; 2) definition and analysis of a lazy audit procedure with rigorous risk limits and an associated correctness analysis accounting for the incidental errors arising in typical audits; and 3) an analysis of practical efficiency. This method can be organized in rounds (as is typical for comparison audits) where sampled CVRs are produced in parallel. Using data from Florida's 2020 presidential election with 5% risk and 1% margin, only 22% of the CVR is generated; at 10% margin, only 2% is generated. Lazy RLAs are implemented and open-sourced.
翻译:风险限制审计(RLAs)是用于检测无效选举结果的严格统计程序。在选举期间,RLAs检查在选举期间投出的纸面选票,以便从统计角度评估选票确定的获胜者与通过制表报告的获胜者之间出现分歧的可能性。最高效的投票方法是“选票比较 ” 。然而,对选票进行比较需要不经信任地公布每张选票的内容,而不是简单的投票总数列表。这个“投票投票记录表”(CVR)随后对选票进行抽查,以取得一致性。在许多实际环境中,产生合适的CVR 的成本主导着进行审计的成本,防止广泛采用这些抽样效率技术。我们引入了一个新的RLA程序:“工资投票比较”审计。在本次审计中,全球CVR从未产生;相反,一个三阶段程序是升级:1个批选取的批数,2个为该批的公开记录表(CVR),3个与批试票进行对比。在审计中,由审计员进行抽样检查,并与CVR比较。 我们证明在进行这样的审计中,一个主要成本分析时,可以得出一个标准。