Statistical modeling can involve a tension between assumptions and statistical identification. The law of the observable data may not uniquely determine the value of a target parameter without invoking a key assumption, and, while plausible, this assumption may not be obviously true in the scientific context at hand. Moreover, there are many instances of key assumptions which are untestable, hence we cannot rely on the data to resolve the question of whether the target is legitimately identified. Working in the Bayesian paradigm, we consider the grey zone of situations where a key assumption, in the form of a parameter space restriction, is scientifically reasonable but not incontrovertible for the problem being tackled. Specifically, we investigate statistical properties that ensue if we structure a prior distribution to assert that `maybe' or `perhaps' the assumption holds. Technically this simply devolves to using a mixture prior distribution putting just some prior weight on the assumption, or one of several assumptions, holding. However, while the construct is straightforward, there is very little literature discussing situations where Bayesian model averaging is employed across a mix of fully identified and partially identified models.
翻译:统计模型可能涉及假设和统计识别之间的矛盾。可观察数据的法律也许不能在不援引关键假设的情况下独有地确定目标参数的价值,而且,虽然这一假设在目前科学背景中可能并不明显。此外,有许多关键假设的事例是无法检验的,因此我们不能依靠数据来解决目标是否合法确定的问题。在巴耶斯模式中,我们认为,以参数空间限制为形式的关键假设在科学上是合理的,但对于正在解决的问题并非不可辩驳。具体地说,我们调查如果我们事先进行分配以主张“可能”或“可能”的假设所持有的统计属性。从技术上讲,这只不过是转向使用混合的先前分配,只是对假设或若干假设中的假设进行某种事先加权,但这一结构是简单易懂的,但很少有文献讨论巴耶斯模式在完全确定和部分确定模型的混合中使用的情况。