Probabilistic Reconstruction of Paleodemographic Signals

We present a comprehensive Bayesian approach to paleodemography, emphasizing the proper handling of uncertainties. We then apply that framework to survey data from Cyprus, and quantify the uncertainties in the paleodemographic estimates to demonstrate the applicability of the Bayesian approach and to show the large uncertainties present in current paleodemographic models and data. We also discuss methods to reduce the uncertainties and improve the efficacy of paleodemographic models.