Hinge-Wasserstein: Mitigating Overconfidence in Regression by Classification

Modern deep neural networks are prone to being overconfident despite their drastically improved performance. In ambiguous or even unpredictable real-world scenarios, this overconfidence can pose a major risk to the safety of applications. For regression tasks, the regression-by-classification approach has the potential to alleviate these ambiguities by instead predicting a discrete probability density over the desired output. However, a density estimator still tends to be overconfident when trained with the common NLL loss. To mitigate the overconfidence problem, we propose a loss function, hinge-Wasserstein, based on the Wasserstein Distance. This loss significantly improves the quality of both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, compared to previous work. We demonstrate the capabilities of the new loss on a synthetic dataset, where both types of uncertainty are controlled separately. Moreover, as a demonstration for real-world scenarios, we evaluate our approach on the benchmark dataset Horizon Lines in the Wild. On this benchmark, using the hinge-Wasserstein loss reduces the Area Under Sparsification Error (AUSE) for horizon parameters slope and offset, by 30.47% and 65.00%, respectively.