The last three years have been an extraordinary time with the Covid-19 pandemic killing millions, affecting and distressing billions of people worldwide. Authorities took various measures such as turning school and work to remote and prohibiting social relations via curfews. In order to mitigate the negative impact of the epidemics, researchers tried to estimate the future of the pandemic for different scenarios, using forecasting techniques and epidemics simulations on networks. Intending to better represent the real-life in an urban town in high resolution, we propose a novel multi-layer network model, where each layer corresponds to a different interaction that occurs daily, such as "household", "work" or "school". Our simulations indicate that locking down "friendship" layer has the highest impact on slowing down epidemics. Hence, our contributions are twofold, first we propose a parametric network generator model; second, we run SIR simulations on it and show the impact of layers.
翻译:近三年来,Covid-19大流行夺走了全世界数百万人的生命,影响和困扰着数十亿人。当局采取了各种措施,如将学校和工作转向偏远地区,并通过宵禁禁止社会关系。为了减轻流行病的负面影响,研究人员试图利用网络上的预测技术和流行病模拟,对不同情况估计这一流行病的未来。为了更好地代表城市高分辨率的现实生活,我们提议了一个新的多层次网络模式,其中每个层次都与日常发生的不同互动相对应,如“家庭”、“工作”或“学校 ” 。我们的模拟表明,锁定“朋友”层对减缓流行病影响最大。因此,我们的贡献是双重的,我们首先提出一个参数网络生成模型;其次,我们对其进行SIR模拟,并展示层次的影响。