How causal machine learning can leverage marketing strategies: Assessing and improving the performance of a coupon campaign

We apply causal machine learning algorithms to assess the causal effect of a marketing intervention, namely a coupon campaign, on the sales of a retail company. Besides assessing the average impacts of different types of coupons, we also investigate the heterogeneity of causal effects across subgroups of customers, e.g. across clients with relatively high vs. low previous purchases. Finally, we use optimal policy learning to learn (in a data-driven way) which customer groups should be targeted by the coupon campaign in order to maximize the marketing intervention's effectiveness in terms of sales. Our study provides a use case for the application of causal machine learning in business analytics, in order to evaluate the causal impact of specific firm policies (like marketing campaigns) for decision support.