A Probabilistic Framework for Lifelong Test-Time Adaptation

Test-time adaptation is the problem of adapting a source pre-trained model using test inputs from a target domain without access to source domain data. Most of the existing approaches address the setting in which the target domain is stationary. Moreover, these approaches are prone to making erroneous predictions with unreliable uncertainty estimates when distribution shifts occur. Hence, test-time adaptation in the face of non-stationary target domain shift becomes a problem of significant interest. To address these issues, we propose a principled approach, PETAL (Probabilistic lifElong Test-time Adaptation with seLf-training prior), which looks into this problem from a probabilistic perspective using a partly data-dependent prior. A student-teacher framework, where the teacher model is an exponential moving average of the student model naturally emerges from this probabilistic perspective. In addition, the knowledge from the posterior distribution obtained for the source task acts as a regularizer. To handle catastrophic forgetting in the long term, we also propose a data-driven model parameter resetting mechanism based on the Fisher information matrix (FIM). Moreover, improvements in experimental results suggest that FIM based data-driven parameter restoration contributes to reducing the error accumulation and maintaining the knowledge of recent domain by restoring only the irrelevant parameters. In terms of predictive error rate as well as uncertainty based metrics such as Brier score and negative log-likelihood, our method achieves better results than the current state-of-the-art for online lifelong test time adaptation across various benchmarks, such as CIFAR-10C, CIFAR-100C, ImageNetC, and ImageNet3DCC datasets.