The COVID-19 recession threatens mass housing insecurity that undermines economic recovery. Unprecedented federal policy responses halt court-ordered evictions, but questions remain whether policies adequately account for dynamics that drive landlord-tenant interactions including accumulations of rental and mortgage arrears, rental unit availability, and low-income housing options. A system dynamics model probes complex feedback dynamics driving tenant and landlord decision-making in the low-income rental housing market pre- and post-pandemic protections. Feedback loops highlight tradeoffs considered by low-income tenants and landlords in the context of scarcity and uncertainty. Simulations suggest the eviction moratorium reduced evictions by 51% before its expiration in late 2021, but rental arrears, overcrowding, and homelessness remained high. Federal emergency rental assistance further contributed to keeping evictions low, but showed only modest effects on housing insecurity and homelessness. More rapid allocation of funds would substantially increase impact. Failure to address underlying financial hardship and limited affordable housing undermine COVID recovery.
翻译:COVID-19经济衰退威胁到破坏经济复苏的大规模住房无保障性; 前所未有的联邦政策对策制止了法院下令的驱逐,但仍然存在一些问题,即政策是否充分顾及促使房东-房客之间互动的动态,包括房租拖欠和抵押贷款的积累、租房单位的可用性和低收入住房选择; 系统动态模型探究了复杂的反馈动态,推动租户和房东在低收入租赁住房市场前和后大规模保护中的决策; 反馈回路凸显了低收入租户和房东在稀缺和不确定的情况下考虑的权衡。 模拟表明,在2021年后期到期之前,暂停驱逐将驱逐减少51%,但拖欠租金、过度拥挤和无家可归现象仍然居高不下。 联邦紧急租赁援助进一步有助于维持低驱逐,但只显示出对住房不安全和无家可归现象的微小影响。 更快速地分配资金将极大地增加影响。