How will superhuman artificial intelligence (AI) affect human decision making? And what will be the mechanisms behind this effect? We address these questions in a domain where AI already exceeds human performance, analyzing more than 5.8 million move decisions made by professional Go players over the past 71 years (1950-2021). To address the first question, we use a superhuman AI program to estimate the quality of human decisions across time, generating 58 billion counterfactual game patterns and comparing the win rates of actual human decisions with those of counterfactual AI decisions. We find that humans began to make significantly better decisions following the advent of superhuman AI. We then examine human players' strategies across time and find that novel decisions (i.e., previously unobserved moves) occurred more frequently and became associated with higher decision quality after the advent of superhuman AI. Our findings suggest that the development of superhuman AI programs may have prompted human players to break away from traditional strategies and induced them to explore novel moves, which in turn may have improved their decision-making.
翻译:超级人工智能将如何影响人类决策?这种影响的机制会是什么?我们在 AlphaGo 超越人类表现的领域中,分析了过去 71 年(1950-2021)中超过 580 万个职业围棋选手的棋局。为了回答第一个问题,我们使用一个超级人工智能程序来估计随时间变化的人类决策质量,生成了 5800 亿个对抗事实游戏模式,并比较了实际人类决策和对抗事实的 AI 决策的胜率。我们发现,超级人工智能出现后,人类开始做出显著更好的决策。然后,我们研究了一下人类选手的策略随时间的变化,并发现在超级人工智能的出现之后,新颖的决策(即以前未见过的着法)更频繁地出现,并与更高的决策质量相关联。我们的研究结果表明,超级人工智能程序的发展可能促使人类选手摆脱传统策略并探索新的着法,进而改善他们的决策能力。