Bayesian, frequentist and fiducial (BFF) inferences are much more congruous than they have been perceived historically in the scientific community (cf., Reid and Cox 2015; Kass 2011; Efron 1998). Most practitioners are probably more familiar with the two dominant statistical inferential paradigms, Bayesian inference and frequentist inference. The third, lesser known fiducial inference paradigm was pioneered by R.A. Fisher in an attempt to define an inversion procedure for inference as an alternative to Bayes' theorem. Although each paradigm has its own strengths and limitations subject to their different philosophical underpinnings, this article intends to bridge these different inferential methodologies through the lenses of confidence distribution theory and Monte-Carlo simulation procedures. This article attempts to understand how these three distinct paradigms, Bayesian, frequentist, and fiducial inference, can be unified and compared on a foundational level, thereby increasing the range of possible techniques available to both statistical theorists and practitioners across all fields.
翻译:贝叶斯、常客和常客(BFF)推论比科学界历史上所认为的要复杂得多(参见Reid和Cox 2015年;Kass 2015年;Kass 2011年;Efron 1998年)。大多数从业者可能更熟悉两种主要的统计推论范式,即巴伊西亚推论和常客推论。第三个,不太为人所知的推论范式,由R.A. Fisher率先提出,试图界定一种推论反程序,以替代贝耶斯理论。虽然每种范式都有其自身的长处和局限性,但取决于其不同的哲学基础,但本文章打算通过信任分配理论和蒙特-卡洛模拟程序的透镜来弥合这些不同的推论方法。本文章试图了解这三种截然不同的范式,即巴伊西亚、常客和导论推论,如何能够在基本层面上统一和比较,从而扩大所有领域统计学家和从业者可利用的技术范围。