Beyond Ensemble Averages: Leveraging Climate Model Ensembles for Subseasonal Forecasting

Producing high-quality forecasts of key climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, on subseasonal time scales has long been a gap in operational forecasting. This study explores an application of machine learning (ML) models as post-processing tools for subseasonal forecasting. Lagged numerical ensemble forecasts (i.e., an ensemble where the members have different initial dates) and observational data, including relative humidity, pressure at sea level, and geopotential height, are incorporated into various ML methods to predict monthly average precipitation and two-meter temperature two weeks in advance for the continental United States. Regression, quantile regression, and tercile classification tasks using linear models, random forests, convolutional neural networks, and stacked models (a multi-model approach based on the prediction of the individual ML models) are considered. Unlike previous ML approaches that often use ensemble mean alone, we leverage information embedded in the ensemble forecasts to enhance prediction accuracy. Additionally, we investigate extreme event predictions that are crucial for planning and mitigation efforts. Considering ensemble members as a collection of spatial forecasts, we explore different approaches to address spatial variability. Trade-offs between different approaches may be mitigated with model stacking. Our proposed models outperform standard baselines such as climatological forecasts and ensemble means. This paper further includes an investigation of feature importance, trade-offs between using the full ensemble or only the ensemble mean, and different modes of accounting for spatial variability.