Power sector capacity expansion models (CEMs) that are used for studying future low-carbon grid scenarios must incorporate detailed representation of grid operations. Often CEMs are formulated to model grid operations over representative periods that are sampled from the original input data using clustering algorithms. However, such representative period selection (RPS) methods are limited by the declining efficacy of the clustering algorithm with increasing dimensionality of the input data and do not consider the relative importance of input data variations on CEM outcomes. Here, we propose a RPS method that addresses these limitations by incorporating dimensionality reduction, accomplished via neural network based autoencoders, prior to clustering. Such dimensionality reduction not only improves the performance of the clustering algorithm, but also facilitates using additional features, such as estimated outputs produced from parallel solutions of simplified versions of the CEM for each disjoint period in the input data (e.g. 1 week). The impact of incorporating dimensionality reduction as part of RPS methods is quantified through the error in outcomes of the corresponding reduced-space CEM vs. the full space CEM. Extensive numerical experimentation across various networks and range of technology and policy scenarios establish the superiority of the dimensionality-reduction based RPS methods.
翻译:用于研究未来低碳电网假设情景的电力部门扩展模型必须包含电网运行的详细代表性。通常,电网模型的制定是为了模拟具有代表性的电网运行,这些电网运行是使用群集算法从原始输入数据抽样的,然而,这种具有代表性的时期选择方法由于组合算法效率的下降而受到限制,因为输入数据日益具有维度,没有考虑到输入数据对电网结果的相对重要性。在这里,我们提议了一种RPS方法,通过在集群之前通过基于自动电离网络的神经网络实现的维度减少,解决这些局限性。这种维度减少不仅改进了集群算法的性能,而且还便利了使用其他特征,例如从输入数据中每个脱节期的简化版本产生的估计产出(例如,1周)。将维度减少作为CEM方法的一部分,其影响通过相应缩小空间的CEM vs. 整个空间 CEM. 在各种网络和一系列技术和政策设想情景中进行广泛的数字实验的结果来量化。