Language model performance depends on identifying the optimal mixture of data groups to train on (e.g., law, code, math). Prior work has proposed a diverse set of methods to efficiently learn mixture proportions, ranging from fitting regression models over training runs to dynamically updating proportions throughout training. Surprisingly, we find that no existing method consistently outperforms a simple stratified sampling baseline in terms of average test perplexity per group. In this paper, we study the cause of this inconsistency by unifying existing methods into a standard optimization framework. We show that all methods set proportions to minimize total loss, subject to a method-specific mixing law -- an assumption on how loss is a function of mixture proportions. We find that existing parameterizations of mixing laws can express the true loss-proportion relationship empirically, but the methods themselves often set the mixing law parameters inaccurately, resulting in poor and inconsistent performance. Finally, we leverage the insights from our framework to derive a new online method named Aioli, which directly estimates the mixing law parameters throughout training and uses them to dynamically adjust proportions. Empirically, Aioli outperforms stratified sampling on 6 out of 6 datasets by an average of 0.28 test perplexity points, whereas existing methods fail to consistently beat stratified sampling, doing up to 6.9 points worse. Moreover, in a practical setting where proportions are learned on shorter runs due to computational constraints, Aioli can dynamically adjust these proportions over the full training run, consistently improving performance over existing methods by up to 12.01 test perplexity points.
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